Prospective Mortality Analyses: Actuarial and Biomedical Approaches

The document discussed the increasing human lifespan and the potential for further extension through biomedical innovations related to the biology of aging. It highlighted that traditional actuarial models, like the Lee Carter model, often predicted artificial deceleration in longevity, which did not align with recent trends. Instead, models predicting an annual increase of about one quarter were more accurate. The pharmaceutical industry was investing in biotechnology and internal teams to capitalize on these innovations, which could accelerate life extension. However, these advancements raised concerns about their impact on pension systems. The study explored the concept of a longevity megafund to finance both pension schemes and pharmaceutical developments, suggesting that pooling clinical trial risks could capture financial benefits from biomedical successes related to longevity.